Two reports on Brexit highlight conflicting views, but both suggest it will largely be a case of wait-and-see.

Heads are clashing over the outlook for the UK economy once the nation divorces the European Union. 

For many, sometimes touted as pessimists, the future looks bleak. 

A new report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation (OECD), the inter-governmental consortium and think-tank, has claimed that reversing Brexit would boost the UK economy as remaining in the European Union would have a “significant” positive impact on growth. 

But for others, the optimists, there is still light at the end of the tunnel. 

A conflicting view from start-up rating agency Early Metrics has been presented in its latest study, which has shown that in the face of political tumult and uncertainty shrouding Brexit, the UK's financial technology sector will continue to thrive in London, outranking its European capital city counterparts. 

According to the OECD, however, a so-called “no deal” will see investment seize up, the pound plummet and the UK's credit rating slashed. The body admits, though, that the outcome is difficult to predict. 

Euan Grant, a senior consultant at Grant & Gutsell, the tax, border control and intelligence consultancy, has told this publication that cooperation between the UK and the EU will be essential in combating financial crime, in particular fraud. 

He has explained that Brussels' proposed overhaul of EU value-added tax to clamp down on fraud estimated to cost the bloc more than $58 million annually will help stymie a “source of huge losses”.

“The deterrence and investigation of [the above], if done properly, is closely linked with a whole range of white collar, brass plate-linked legal and illegal activities,” Grant said. “This problem is but one – but a very big one – of the examples of how post-Brexit cooperation is in the mutual interest, seriously so.”

On the other hand are Early Metric's findings. Based on analysis of 1,500 fintech firms operating across Europe, the study has found that London is “likely to remain Europe's fintech hub in the medium term”, despite having to battle headwinds generated by the UK's vote to leave the bloc last June. 

"Positioned as the gateway between the US and Europe, the UK already possesses expertise in successful fintech ventures and the capability to continue this trend, demonstrated by the $564 million invested in fintech start-ups this year alone," said Antoine Baschiera, Early Metrics' chief executive. “London will maintain its fintech influence if this landscape does not change.”

Still, on the back of the OECD publishing its report, UK Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has said the UK will consider its findings and act where possible. 

At a press conference following the release of the report, he reportedly said: “[By] delivering a time-limited transition period, avoiding a disruptive cliff-edge exit from the EU, we can provide greater certainty for businesses up and down the UK, and across the European Union.”

Although Early Metrics' findings offers a more upbeat forecast, the study highlights that regulatory issues and the UK's membership to the single market will continue to cause concern as Britain exits the EU. 

The country's status as a member of the single market, which currently grants UK money managers “passporting” rights to freely offer services and serve clients across member states, has been called into question by negotiators across Europe. 

Investors and start-ups in the wealth management sector are worried about the loss of passporting rights, Early Metrics has said, and three-quarters of fintech start-ups are reliant on external technology to integrate payment solutions and access market data. 

Adding to this sense of uncertainty, the OECD's report has flagged that heightened price pressures will “choke off” private consumption, and that if the UK's credit rating tumbles this could lead to higher interest rates to entice lenders from other countries.