Real Estate

Global House Prices Rose In 2015 Despite Economic Headwinds

Farva Kaukab 21 March 2016

Global House Prices Rose In 2015 Despite Economic Headwinds

An index of global house price puts North America somewhere in the middle of the range of increases, with Australasia way in front and Russia languishing.

Concerns over the global economy last year failed to dent buyer confidence, the global housing price index of 55 markets by Knight Frank found. Global prices increased by 3 per cent in 2015, up from 2.3 per cent in 2014, thanks to a low interest rate environment. In North America, the average gain was 4.6 per cent.

At 12.4 per cent, Australasia is the region with the highest annual housing price growth rate. It's an increase which is more than double that of the follow-up region, the Middle East. But according to OECD data of 24 of its 34 member countries, New Zealand and Australia are also among the least affordable ones - overvalued at 32 and 29 per cent respectively.

Asia ranks second last at 1.9 per cent annual price growth. With Taiwan and Singapore already seeing negative growth for a number of quarters, Hong Kong's 3.7 per cent market decline in Q4 2015 contributed to the lacklustre rise.

“Although house prices in Hong Kong increased in 2015, the rate of growth has slowed significantly from 17 per cent in the year to September to 7 per cent in the year to December 2015,” Kate Everett-Allen, international residential research partner at Knight Frank, said.

“The slower rate of growth is attributable to rising supply (more than 11,200 homes were completed in 2015), as well as China’s financial market volatility and the expectation of increasing interest rates,” she added.

Although the data needs to be fully understood in context, the figures can shed light on the changing relative fortunes of economic regions. In recent years, Singapore and Hong Kong, for example, have seen residential prices come off the boil, in part because of efforts by policymakers to curb leverage and exposure to any property price reverses. Wealth management centres such as those of London, New York, Geneva and Zurich have seen rapid price growth at times.

Knight Frank expects index’s overall rate of growth to be weaker in 2016 than 2015. The global economy is experiencing a potentially dangerous cocktail of low oil prices, a strong dollar and a continued slowdown in China. Some 43 of the 55 housing markets tracked in Knight Frank’s index saw prices rise, up from 10 countries in the aftermath of the Lehman’s collapse in the second quarter of 2009.

Despite being marred in recent years by terrorist attacks and political upheavals, Turkey led the ranking with an 18 per cent price rise during 2015. The country is increasingly viewed as a safe haven for Middle Eastern investors, bridging East and West whilst also seeing strong population growth, according to Knight Frank.

Neighbouring Greece, on the other hand, saw housing prices fall by 5 per cent making it, along with Ukraine (12 per cent decline), among the weakest housing markets.

The Knight Frank Global House Price Index is compiled on a quarterly basis using official government statistics or central bank data where available. The index’s overall performance is weighted by GDP on a Purchasing Power Parity basis and the latest quarter’s data is provisional pending the release of all the countries’ results.

In the rankings of annual price rises, Australasia is top, followed by the Middle East, Latin America, North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and finally, Russia. In the latter case, prices fell 6.2 per cent.
 

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