There are signs that speculators believe the world economy will expand this year, judging by how they upped exposure to rising commodity prices by the greatest extent since August 2010, according to Bloomberg, citing figures from the options and futures markets.

Hedge funds and other investors increased combined net-long positions across 18 US futures and options by 18 per cent to 536,907 contracts in the week ended 27 December 2011, the news report said, citing data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The figures might suggest a more confident outlook than is indicated by some market benchmarks. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities declined 1.2 per cent last year; but it rallied 12 percent from a 10-month low reached in October.

A number of wealth management strategists have been cautious in their outlook for commodities – apart from safe-haven areas such as gold – due to concerns about the global economic picture, particularly in view of fears about eurozone debt.

In December, the UK consultancy and research firm, Capital Economics, argued that sizeable falls in most commodity prices demonstrate two important issues. Firstly, “even if some commodities are in the early stages of a multi-year 'super-cycle' of rising prices driven by buoyant demand from emerging markets (an assumption that we at least question), prices can easily be blown off course for long periods by macroeconomic and financial factors”, the firm said.