Client Affairs
UK Recession: Opportunities For Investors?

As the UK enters recession, Frédérique Carrier, managing director, RBC Europe Ltd explores the reasons behind the lacklustre performance and examines where investors can find opportunities.
The UK seems to be the first of the major advanced economies to enter recession, and more challenges are in store, as the government announced sweeping spending cuts and tax increases in its Autumn Statement.
The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak’s austerity measures, which are
projected to total around 1.9 per cent of GDP over the next five
years, aim to get the nation’s debt-to GDP ratio – which stood at
roughly 103 per cent as of the end of 2021 – falling at a
comfortable pace, Frédérique Carrier, head of investment
strategy, British Isles and Asia at RBC Wealth
Management said in a statement on Friday.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England, the first major central bank to
embark on a tightening cycle back in 2021, has raised interest
rates to 3 per cent so far. With a more prudent fiscal policy in
place, RBC believes that the BoE will be less likely to adopt an
aggressive policy going forward and predicts that the bank
rate will reach 3.75 per cent at the end of the current
tightening cycle, less than the 4.9 per cent consensus
estimate.
Higher interest rates are already having an impact on the housing
market, Carrier continued. In the UK, some 30 per cent of
mortgages are fixed for two years and will be coming up for
refinancing at much higher rates. Surveys, including a recent one
by UK real estate website Rightmove, suggest property prices are
declining.
With UK consumers particularly sensitive to the housing market,
this suggests that the BoE’s efforts are having the intended
effect of decelerating demand, Carrier said.
RBC believes that decisions taken by policymakers (fiscal
recklessness followed by austerity in a recession) and by society
at large (Brexit) have put the UK economy on a difficult path. In
RBC’s view, the economy will eventually recover, but a change of
direction would probably help it improve sooner.
Such a change might be happening, Carrier continued. Sunak
differs from his three predecessors since 2016 in that he doesn’t
seem bent on taking an adversarial stance against the country’s
major trading partner, the EU.
In early November, Sunak became the first Prime Minister since
2007 to attend a British-Irish Council Summit, and a bilateral
summit with France has been announced for Q1 2023. A solution to
the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol, the customs
procedures designed to avoid a hard border on the island of
Ireland since Brexit, would go some way towards reducing the
uncertainty which has affected investment since the UK voted to
leave the EU in 2016, in RBC’s view.
Low valuations, high dividends
With austerity making economic conditions more challenging, RBC
maintains its underweight recommendation for UK equities as part
of a global portfolio.
However, the bank thinks that there are attractive opportunities
in UK equities, which are trading at an historically large
valuation discount compared with other markets, even when
taking into account differences in sector composition. For
income-seeking investors, the FTSE All-Share Index has the
highest dividend yield among the major regional equity markets,
at over 4 per cent.
RBC maintains its strong bias for internationally oriented
companies. The valuation multiples of many leading UK-listed
multinationals are now significantly lower than peers listed in
other markets. Despite their strong outperformance in 2022, RBC
believes that energy companies in particular remain attractively
valued, given the prospect of oil and gas prices remaining higher
for longer.
Carrier said that RBC would continue to be selective towards domestically focused UK stocks given its cautious stance on consumer spending.